Every year we read, during the December period, the newspaper forecast on Internet or rather Web based consumer spending. The headlines declare, in bold print, the coming or rather unavoidable "demise" of traditional retail as we know it. However looking at the absolute figures it seems to be a rather sedate growth pattern for the Internet based sales.


Product mix limited
Moreover it looks to me that the mix of products that "score" on the Internet sales is still rather limited. It revolves around the more convenient products, for which one does not need many comparisons over and above the price. We know the name of the book, CD or DVD and that is all we need to know to decide where to order.

Much more difficult, even for the now internet based versions of the traditional mail order companies, are the products that need more criteria that are needed to select. These criteria might be as basic as fit and size but can more often than not also be emotional, taste and smell ... On top if these issues come, in my opinion, matters such as the entertainment value of shopping and the experience and personal interaction we sometimes need by making decisions.

Cinema visits are up by staggering percentages
Retail as we know it is not one or even two dimensional but three dimensional, both in real terms and in emotional terms. Convenience is supposedly the main driver that we now seek! However is it not strange to see that in most countries Cinema visits are up by staggering percentages? Why is that happening in a time that the debate rages on downloading and piracy? Clearly it is the result of amongst other things the fact that the movie industry had recognised the need of the consumer as far as the factors emotion, experience and interaction are concerned. Retail must now follow suit and individual retailers as well as retail property developers should take heed of these developments.  

More and Bigger
Too long the larger corporations and Property developers have thought to be able to keep their momentum going by more and bigger, rather than to become more exciting, more personal and more a-tuned to customers changing needs.

The "death" or rather the imminent "death" of the independent retailer
Too long our city planners (and I talk here about mainly European nations) have allowed developers to “prostitute “their inner city high street shopping locations to go to the highest bidder. Resulting in an ever decreasing variety of both, merchandise and above all retail (and experience). The "death" or rather the imminent "death" of the independent retailer, with its personal and individual approach is the inevitable result of such a policy by our local and other governmental authorities. I realise that the movement to market conform strategies have been partly to blame but in a society where government seems to flex its muscles and "usurp" its authority on so many other levels it would be clearly defensible to let government oversee the development of our retail mix. To allow smaller entrepreneurs to "compete" on a level playing field for the publics custom. It would create more variety and interest in our cities and even Malls; it would create more jobs and above all would allow the public to choose between convenience and personal interaction.

Internet dominant factor in Retail ?
Internet and convenience have their place in retail, however I am sure that in the final analysis the consumer at large will want to forego its experience, its choice and above all the sense of belonging that real shopping creates. Where internet will continue to grow for some time to come, it is my conviction that it will never become the dominant factor in retail that some pundits seem to indicate.

I realise the some people might want to compare this prediction of mine to those in the past that predicted the demise of the automobile or the airplane, however there was no suitable alternative to these new inventions, whereas to web based retail there is !!!